Manolo Quezon is #TheExplainer Newsletter - Issue #32 Ghost Month's Over
Today's a combined edition: Electoral Merry-Go-Round and The Long View.
The Ghost Month's Over Department
As I've mentioned in a previous newsletter, don't underestimate the impact of omens and portents in Philippine politics. With the end of the Ghost Month (August 8 to September 6), candidates can actually become more engaged. But there remains a lesson from 2010 and 2016: to proclaim one's candidacy early, makes one an early target, especially since the name of the game is no longer creating a majority, but rather, maintaining a minority larger than other minorities.
This morning a perceptive reader messaged me,
Watched PDP convention and Ping-Tito launch, did you?
PDP's[was like a] wake. No enthusiastic applause or raucous laughter [for]too many times heard lines and jokes [of] Duterte - a mash up of his late night show attacks on senators, ICC, and reaffirmations of obosen. Eulogy.
[The] candidacy launch [of] Ping at Tito "Ito AngSimula" was hosted by Pia Guanio [in the] Eat Bulaga studio so noon time show enthusiasm [was impression made by the] fake audience. [But it was a] well scripted show -- old friends, endorses, family and short speeches [that were] rebottled, old wine in new bottle [as they say].
This week’s Long View
Noticeably absent in the Wednesday-morning quarterbacking was the Vice-President.
The widow might | Inquirer Opinion — opinion.inquirer.net
By: Manuel L. Quezon III - @inquirerdotnet
Philippine Daily Inquirer / 04:05 AM September 08, 2021
Surely you have a favorite parable from the Bible. Mine happens to be “The Widow’s Mite,” in which Christ saw the wealthy put their gifts in the Temple treasury, and then, pointing to a poor widow’s two mites or small copper coins, said, “Truly I say to you that this poor widow has put in more than all; for all these out of their abundance have put in offerings for God, but she out of her poverty put in all the livelihood that she had.” It was a story that particularly came to mind often with the explosion of community pantries, but which also struck me repeatedly whenever the Vice President tried to lead by example in this pandemic era.
It was the President himself who wiped the floor with his rival candidates in 2016 when, during a televised debate, he simply declared, “The problem of this country is leadership.” By his boldness, he proclaimed, without having to say it, that he had what it took to provide what he claimed was missing. That was then.
Yesterday was a reminder of what the President’s actual leadership has been proven to be, in this pandemic era. His scheduled morning rant, it was announced, wouldn’t take place. The reason was obvious. The Senate was continuing its hearings into scandalous circumstances surrounding the Department of Health and government procurement of PPE and other materials, frustrated by its inability to find after summoning, individuals such as one of the President’s advisors linked to the whole dubious debacle. When the hearing concluded, the Palace suddenly announced that the President would, after all, go on television later in the day.
In the same hearing, one Cabinet member was questioned on the use of Philippine Air Force planes to pick up PPE from China. Senators expressed misgivings since a commercial transaction was seemingly made possible with government logistical help; at the very least, it could be construed as having unduly aided foreign merchants when domestic ones had mobilized to try to fill in the need for PPE.
Do you remember when that happened? Back in the early days when materials were scarce? And once again, I was reminded of the parable of the widow’s mite because you might also remember in those early days, the situation was so frantic, people were volunteering to make PPE at home, just to help our frontliners. Do you still remember how the Vice President helped organize these volunteers? Or how the effort led her to release, for public use by anyone who’d care to use it, a template for people to follow, to make useful PPE? That was on March 29, 2020. On YouTube, you can still see the video of her visiting sewers in Bulacan on Aug. 5, 2020. This was the second wave of such efforts, mind you, at a cost of P378.37 per set. Do you remember her response, when the government, in imposing a lockdown, decreed a halt to all public transport? Free shuttle services complete with schedules were organized. And there were COVID-19 kits for citizens, the Swab Cab initiative, the Vaccine Express initiative, the free dorm effort when our frontliners were being ostracized and even evicted from their dorms, the Community Mart for consumers, and many more.
Perhaps for those plugged into the networks of her civic and NGO partners and other allies, you might remember. If you were elsewhere, the fact that hers was a Little Office That Could, may not have registered because news about it couldn’t get out. You can go on YouTube and look for Leni Robredo and you’ll see it. And it will introduce you to what leadership in this pandemic looks like.
I am old-fashioned enough to think that in an election, an administration stands or fall on its record during its term, as judged by the people; the job of an opposition during that time is to lay out not just what the administration failed to do or came up short, but how it would do better were it to be given a mandate. Truth be told, as the American comic Will Rogers once famously put it, the only job of a Vice President is to get up every morning and ask, “How is the President?” And yet the incumbent veep has simply taken what little she has by way of budget or donations and channeled it to perhaps the most productive and effective record of proactive assistance of any public office. For every part of the present government’s pandemic response where it has been found not only wanting — but increasingly, criminally, accountable — the widow established precedent for an alternative method that was inclusive, logical, responsive, and effective.
The only criticism that can possibly be left is that what has been done are merely proofs of concepts that still require scaling up. Fair enough. The veep recently suggested she’s up to the challenge. Give her the authority. And she just might…
Actually lead.
Email: mlquezon3@gmail.com; Twitter: @mlq3
All you have to do is visit the Vice-President's YouTube page to see videos of some of the things I mentioned above --and a lot more.
Leni Robredo — www.youtube.com Maria Leonor Gerona Robredo, an alternative lawyer and public servant, is the 14th Vice President of the Philippines. After years of working with the poor an...
Electoral Merry-Go-Round
An interesting read, on the communication styles of Robredo, Lacson-Sotto, and Moreno, with the author making the case for Moreno being the successful communicator with a winning message. My own quick thoughts:
First on Veep: the biggest obstacle was news on her didn’t/wouldn’t get out, and here media deserves scrutiny aside from the tactics of swarming her supporters on the part of the President’s people.
Second on Lacson-Sotto; it seems clear their angle is to pitch themselves as improved (calmer, more competent, not-wierd) version of the strongman leadership 2016 proved is a sizeable and energized constituency. Plus as senators they are proven vote-getters on a national scale.
Reading between the lines though one could argue both Robredo and Lacson have telegraphed an openness to not running if they lack the numbers by October or before the actual campaign formally begins. This makes me revisit my PoV on Moreno.
I am inclined to believe that his leaving NUP and joining Aksyon where Vico Sotto already is, was a tactical one to spare NUP scrutiny since its main purpose like other corporate subsidiary style parties, is to protect corporate interests with a strategic bloc in the legislature.
Aksyon has been rejuvenated and one has to wonder how it got revived; the moving of Moreno suggests with him came resources. Note that other corporate sibsidiary style parties: NPC (to which TitoSen belongs), NP have also wisely refrained from having presidential bets so they can easily either openly or under the radar swing support to other bets; the viable one here seems TitoSen so it would open up the tantalizing and old school formula-rich possibility of an Isko-TitoSen tandem with both speaking the same showbiz language but Isko having security of a veteran politician in his corner (no fears of a coup and a welcome mentor in national politics). The only maneuvering required is to get the Veep and Lacson to see the writing on the wall and endorse Moreno as the unifier (his respectful behavior at death of Aquino III remember?).
Pacquiao has less and less leverage since all Mindanao politicians know he would divide and thus destroy Mindanao’s leverage; who will want to hitch their star to the outmaneuvered Koko Pimentel anyway? Ferdinand Marcos Jr. for his part seems to think his prospects are best if framed as a grudge match with the Vice-President.
So that’s what I think at this point.
The Three Faces of Criticizing the President | by Macoy's Dump | Sep, 2021 | Medium — macoysdump.medium.com
September 8, 2021 felt like the first day of the campaign. It, too, is the first day after the end of ghost month which political candidates are superstitious about. Today is also the birthday of the Virgin Mary in this Catholic country, and as of writing, we are being ravaged by torrential rains due to a typhoon.
Even if these are the circumstances, politics never sleeps. That’s why today we have seen the following events unfold:
The official launch of the Lacson-Sotto campaign.
The PDP-Laban (Cusi wing) National Convention which is expected to officially nominate Pres. Rodrigo Duterte for Vice President.
Sen. Manny Pacquiao’s press conference talking about greed and his dream to bring housing to all informal settlers in 3–5 years, without saying he’s running for president.
Former Sen. Bongbong Marcos’s press conference talking about his 2022 plans and how he’ll beat Leni Robredo if a rematch happens next year.
Manila Mayor Isko Moreno’s press conference where he criticized the government’s pandemic response and stated that “he’ll face Duterte in October.”
Political events tend to play tug-of-war with one another in bagging headlines. Even when we had an actual campaign launch for the presidency today, the Manila Mayor’s press conference is making the most buzz right now...
The Leni Method
Vice President Leni Robredo is one of the first to criticize our government’s pandemic response. Her most common theme is that the Philippines has not yet reached its daily target amount of COVID-19 tests and that our contact tracing efforts are virtually non-existent. Content-wise, the VP is correct. There’s nothing wrong about the message in terms of how this should be our approach in handling the pandemic. My problem is how this will be appreciated by the public....
Let’s go back to the average voter... He probably won’t appreciate “test” and “trace” because of what it means in their context. Working-class Filipinos are afraid of getting tested because testing positive means they won’t be able to work. Getting traced also has the same effect. They don’t want that for them, so why would they buy that solution?...
The Lacson-Sotto Method
Sometime around 2021, Ping Lacson and Tito Sotto began talking about their “we neither oppose nor support the President” stances. They began to attack the unused Bayanihan 2 funds, the DOH’s failures and corrupt practices, and just today, the President’s leadership. Their campaign line is “we need a leader.” How strong is this message?
Well, for one, I personally could not find where Lacson and Sotto will get their base votes from. I say this both geographically and demographically. Beyond that, I think what speaks volumes about their message is how eerily familiar it is with the Duterte brand in 2016. Rodrigo Duterte was the first to tell the country that we need real and tough leadership. We all know now where that got us...
The Isko Method
Isko Moreno’s message was not built overnight. It was not made on Arroceros Park earlier this morning. It is a part of a well-orchestrated political message. This is why it was so effective in convincing people.
His angle was more specific and simple: “buy remdisivir and tocilizumab, not face shields” and “please do your job because we are doing ours well here.”
Isko Moreno’s brand was already well-established, at least within the more masa demographic on Facebook and Youtube. He’s a Mayor who delivers and delivers fast as portrayed in many of his public appearances. He built a field hospital in 52 days, broke ground on several vertical housing projects in Manila, and changed the game in vaccinating Manilans...
So when an average voter looks at Isko, he uses the following shortcuts:
First, Isko represents a Mayor from the masses. He was once like the voter. That opens up a soft spot.
Second, Isko hits home with a tangible, everyday item: face shields. Look around at how average Filipinos turn face shields into headbands. They know how annoying it is. So they’ll automatically agree with the message.
Third, the guy has a case study to provide to everyone. Isko Moreno owns the Manila model of pandemic response.
The first actions of Isko (building hospitals and condominiums) was a way to stimulate the sana taga-Maynila ako sentiment. The next actions (opening Manila to non-Manilans) were to demonstrate to everyone how it’s possible that they can have it too. So the final step is to drive the message and say “am I not the better leader here?”
Hence, the President has no clothes. Which is possibly why he’s resorting to simply attacking Isko Moreno’s past pictures in briefs. He can’t find an opening to discredit the man.
We now have the perfect message and message-bearer. It’s now time to get rid of the demons of Malacañang.
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